A Mori poll for The Observer shows Labour to have a significant lead - seven points, attributed to a so-called "Brown bounce" - among people who say they are "certain" to vote. This same group last week in the FT showed a clear majority for the Tories, but with some 40 per cent of respondents saying that although they were sure to vote, they could still change their minds between now and polling day.

The temperature-taking in Monday's FT concentrates on the mood among business leaders, with a Mori poll of finance directors. Nine out of ten believe Labour would raise taxes on business.

Meanwhile, 49 per cent say the Conservatives have the best policies for business - Labour scores just 23 per cent, while six out of ten company directors say - perhaps unsurprisingly - they will vote Tory.


The row over the role of immigration in the campaign stepped up a notch this weekend, with the Tories making it their key issue, and UNHCR accusing Michael Howard of not letting the facts get in the way of a good slogan.

The Independent also reports that a former Tory immigration minister, Charles Wardle, will criticise Tory plans as "unworkable", saying that this is Mr Howard's attempt to "stir the issue rather than deal with it".



While voters wait for the publication of the party manifestos, there's also anticipation over the first round of party election broadcasts - Labour's kick off on Monday night with a Blair-Brown cuddlefest.


Peter Preston in The Observer has a nice run-down on how the British papers may line up come decision day.

The Mail on Sunday began serialising Peter Oborne's new book "The Rise of Political Lying", while anyone worried by the potential for postal vote fraud won't be cheered by a piece in the Sunday Times saying that a cabinet meeting last year decided that the law governing postal voting should be tightened, but the measure was dropped after a study showed it would have the effect of reducing turnout among key Labour voters such as the young and poor.

The Times also reports that a YouGov poll shows 64 per cent of those surveyed think postal voting should be suspended until security can be improved, and that only 22 per cent of people trust the electoral system "a lot".



And finally, read what you want into this, I guess, but it's Mr Brown, and not Mr Blair, who makes the Time magazine list of 100 most influential people in the world.