Off and running

So, one day later than we thought, but we're finally off and running.

Two stories in the FT this morning must make encouraging reading at Conservative Central Office.

A Mori poll shows the Tories with a 39-34 lead over Labour among that crucial group of people who say they are "certain to vote".

Pollster Bob Worcester points out that 74 per cent of Tories say they are certain to vote, but only 57 per cent of Labour supporters say they are.

At the same time, the prime minister's personal popularity continues to decline. He now has just a 14-point lead over Mr Howard. To put that in perspective, Mr Blair's lead over William Hague in 2001 was 39 per cent.

It seems, even, that The Sun can't be counted on to wholeheartedly back the government's cause, with its "Make Your Mind Up" editorial.

Perhaps this all puts John O'Farrell's recent and much-maligned rallying email to Labour supporters into a bit of perspective. Maybe it is time for emotional blackmail after all.

But a possible bright spot in these figures for the government might be that 41 per cent - a huge number in this category - of people who said they will vote for one party or another said they might change their vote between now and the election.

(Although whether that actually means that disaffected Labour voters can't make up their minds whether to vote for the Lib Dems or the Tories remains to be seen).

In other polls, the Guardian's ICM poll has Labour three points ahead 37-34, NOP in the Independent has 36-33, while a Populus poll for The Times has Labour on 37, Tories on 35 and the Lib Dems on 19 - and all of those margins are probably much closer than Labour would like, even at this stage.

Another blow to the government yesterday was the ruling in the Birmingham vote fraud case, where the behaviour of local candidates and their parties would, the judge said, "disgrace a banana republic".

Maybe more important, though, in that story than the disqualification of the six Labour councillors, was the indictment of the whole postal voting system.

"Short of writing 'steal me' on the envelopes, it is hard to see what more could be done to ensure [postal ballots] coming into the wrong hands," said the judge.

With record numbers of people applying for postal votes, it could presage, as Camilla Cavendish writes in The Times "voting fraud on a massive scale".

The Independent, meanwhile, has an interview with Charles Kennedy where he says the party must take this opportunity capitalise on its "unprecedented public goodwill".

As The Economist asks this week: "What happens if the Lib Dems start to matter?" or is their aim, as their strategy chief Lord Rennard says, to turn the campaign "into a big by-election"?

Tory candidate Iain Dale obviously believes the dirty tricks have already started... (see his blog entry for April 1).